Google Will Win and Facebook Will Lose

In the battle between Google and Facebook, Google will win and Facebook will lose. And so will Foursquare, Evernote, and anybody else you might think of.

And Google will lose in the end too. I don’t know who to, because they haven’t started yet, but if I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d put my money on Posterous.

Hype drives fashion, and fashion attracts the early adopters. In the process new technologies and behaviours emerge. Gmail was once that fashion, but it’s now mainstream.

Google now sits there watching, identifies the technologies and behaviours emerging, then builds those into its infrastructure. Knowing that, ultimately, micro blogging and geolocation are new ways of doing stuff.

The fashion wil wane. Early adopters will move on to the next exciting idea, leaving the behaviour behind, so the majority of people have a new way of doing things. That’s where the G-man wins.

For the social media Pied Pipers Wave and Buzz have been failures, but the Giant plays a longer game than that. Short message broadcast to contacts is a really interesting technology, as is collaborative editing. Buzz and Wave will become mainstream.

So my guess is the dominant player will build its social networking without telling anybody. They’ll just pull the parts together, with Gmail as the common factor. Its already doing it – Buzz, Wave, Profiles, Latitude, Maps, Knols, Blogger, Chat, sharing in Reader, single sign on. Add to that all the business stuff – Adwords, Adsense, Webmaster, Analytics, Apps, Markeplace, Chrome, Chrome Apps.

Its quite scary when you put all the pieces into one big picture, but it won’t last. No company dominates information technology for ever.

Old fogies like me remember when nobody got fired for buying IBM, Microsoft wouldn’t exist if MSDOS hadn’t been chosen by IBM for the PC. That was in the days when PCs had to be IBM compatible.

But who buys IBM now? And Microsoft is going the same way.

So why will Google lose out and who to?

That’s an awfully good question but if Seth Godin is right, and I’m sure he is, it’ll be determined by Content.

Google’s technology takes a copy of every web site, then uses links and traffic measures to sort the wheat from the chaff. It’s a constant battle with SPAM.

The new boys in the Content business – WordPress, Digg, Diigo, Delicious, Stumbleupon, and a host of others use people – US – to do the sorting so they only have to record the best. Quality Content per page is much cheaper for those guys.

The same is true for Posterous. And Posterous is building in the sharing. Soon we’ll see the networking. And then we’ll see the Search engine.

When Ning moved away from free sites Posterous made a big deal of welcoming all Ning users. It offers the ultimate simplicity in blogging, microblogging, sharing, collaborative editing,

Posterous is making it all ultra simple for people to publish content and hiding what its got from Search engines.

Now why would those guys do that?

Googler Reveals How Google Could Beat Facebook (huffingtonpost.com)
Rumor: Google Rolling Out “Google Me,” Their Facebook Killer, Very Soon [Unconfirmed] (gizmodo.com)
Here’s how Google could take on Facebook. (thenextweb.com)
WHY Google could actually kill Facebook (mnn.com)
Google Building a Facebook Rival? Let’s Hope So (mashable.com)
Google Me will be a friendlier version of Facebook…for better and for worse (backupify.com)
Buzz was just for starters — here comes Google Me (look out Facebook, lock up your daughters, etc.) (downloadsquad.com)

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